The Universe Won't Be Devoured by Black Holes: Here's Why
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No matter how long you wait, the matter that makes you probably won’t end up inside a black hole.
A prevalent myth suggests that if you simply wait long enough, you will inevitably be consumed by a black hole, regardless of your location. With nearly a billion black holes existing in the Milky Way, primarily centered around the supermassive black hole at its core, it seems plausible to think that eventually, everything will be devoured.
Even if you manage to avoid colliding with a black hole, gravitational waves cause orbits to decay, eventually leading to interactions with black holes. However, other physical processes are more significant, indicating that black holes will not consume the entire universe.
In scientific research, demonstrating that a process can occur isn’t enough; you must also quantify how often and under what conditions it happens. It’s essential to analyze:
- The conditions under which it occurs,
- The frequency of occurrence,
- Other competing processes that may be involved.
By considering the broader context, you can better understand the probabilities and timescales for these events in the universe. For any mass that doesn't possess the requisite size to become a black hole, two critical factors determine the likelihood of being consumed by one: colliding randomly with another black hole or spiraling into an existing one.
The Milky Way is a spiral galaxy, containing around 400 billion stars. Approximately 0.1% of these stars will evolve into black holes, most having masses between 4 and 40 solar masses. However, a few may become significantly larger, culminating in the supermassive black hole at the galaxy's center, which has a mass of 4 million solar masses.
Given random stellar interactions, it's exceedingly unlikely for a planet like Earth to have encountered a large stellar mass throughout cosmic history, let alone a black hole. Currently, the nearest star, beyond our Sun, is about 500 times the distance between the Earth and the Sun. It is projected that a black hole wouldn’t approach Earth closer than this until a staggering number of years pass—around 10 billion times the current age of the universe.
However, orbital decay caused by gravitational waves is another factor to consider. General Relativity indicates that when a mass moves through curved space, it emits gravitational radiation, losing energy and tightening its orbit around the mass creating that curvature. Any two gravitationally bound masses, regardless of their nature, will radiate energy until they eventually merge.
After an extended period, Earth will spiral into the remnants of the Sun, and eventually, the supermassive black hole at the center of the galaxy will absorb all surrounding stars and masses.
If gravitational interactions were the only phenomenon at play, black holes could indeed consume the entire universe. Most large galaxies harbor a supermassive black hole at their core, and when black holes encounter other masses, they tend to grow larger. As galaxies merge into massive elliptical structures, it seems inevitable that black holes will dominate the universe.
Imagine a scenario where this unfolds: stars extinguish, planets spiral into their stellar remnants, and all that remains eventually falls into the central black holes of galaxies. Given enough time, only black holes would remain.
Yet, this is not the ultimate outcome. While calculations suggest a lengthy timeline—much longer than the current age of the universe—for such an event to occur, it is still a finite duration. If gravitational interactions were the sole contributors, black holes might consume the universe, even in the absence of observers.
To escape this fate, one must consider the competing processes at work. Various interactions between massive objects can lead to significantly different outcomes. If these alternative interactions happen more rapidly and frequently than black hole consumption, then that will become the predominant fate for most of the universe.
Galaxies are filled with numerous masses that are influenced by gravity, often passing close to one another and interacting gravitationally. In these encounters, both masses attract each other, but their orbits typically remain hyperbolic, redirecting their velocities rather than merging.
When two masses are part of a galaxy, they are not isolated but rather connected to a larger system. Gravitational interactions within a bound system can lead to different outcomes than isolated encounters. In many cases, the smaller mass may be ejected while the larger mass retains a tighter gravitational bond.
From our observations, we can estimate how long various masses, including stars and remnants, will persist in our galaxy and others. While black holes might exhibit intriguing effects over immense timescales, the ejection of stars is a much more efficient process. In approximately 10 billion years, ejections will become prevalent, leading to about 99% of stars being expelled into intergalactic space, where they will drift alone, never to encounter another galaxy again.
Thus, the vast majority of the universe will not be consumed by black holes, but rather will be cast into the cosmic void. Once in this state, they will persist as “runaway stars” or stellar remnants for the remainder of cosmic time.
It is true that a minuscule fraction of stars, planets, asteroids, and other matter will be absorbed by black holes—less than 0.1% of all existing matter in the universe. Even dark matter will remain on the peripheries of galaxies, unable to be engulfed.
One might speculate that after countless years, anything remaining in a galaxy will eventually be consumed, but we must also consider Hawking radiation: eventually, all black holes will decay. Before any significant portion of remaining galactic matter can be devoured, every black hole in existence will have vanished. If something precious falls into a black hole, don't lose hope. With time, you might not only reclaim its energy but likely its information as well.
Starts With A Bang is now on Forbes and republished on Medium thanks to our Patreon supporters. Ethan has authored two books, "Beyond The Galaxy" and "Treknology: The Science of Star Trek from Tricorders to Warp Drive."