The Resurgence of COBOL: Trends and Future Prospects
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Chapter 1: The Timeless Relevance of COBOL
The COBOL programming language, which stands for Common Business-Oriented Language, celebrated its 63rd anniversary in 2022, while its mainframe counterpart reached 58 years. Throughout these decades, numerous tech trends have emerged, yet COBOL has consistently remained integral, adapting alongside the rise of personal computers, the Internet, and the Java programming language. Instead of being rendered obsolete, COBOL has found ways to align with these advancements. The recent years, particularly due to the Global Pandemic, have continued to solidify COBOL's importance in the tech landscape.
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Section 1.1: Key Trends Shaping COBOL's Future
Modernization Initiatives
A significant trend influencing COBOL is the modernization of computer systems. Industries are increasingly leaning towards integrating new technologies to enhance their existing frameworks. A survey by Micro Focus revealed that 70% of organizations prefer this approach over completely replacing outdated systems. This can involve modernizing COBOL code or implementing advanced interfacing technologies.
Digital Transformation
Building on modernization, Digital Transformation involves reimagining legacy systems to improve processes and customer interactions. In this approach, existing COBOL code is preserved but modularized for compatibility with contemporary technologies such as cloud computing. As highlighted by Bartollk (2020), COBOL serves as a foundational element for Digital Transformation, emphasizing the need to maintain legacy systems.
Increased Demand for COBOL Programmers
The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a surge in demand for COBOL programmers, primarily due to the necessity of maintaining legacy systems that manage essential benefits like unemployment payments. As discussed in Murray's article (2020), many COBOL experts are returning from retirement to address this urgent need, as they are vital in processing claims using systems that are often decades old.
Revival of COBOL Education
Another noteworthy trend is the resurgence of COBOL courses. While many educational institutions had phased out COBOL instruction, the pandemic-induced demand has led major organizations like Micro Focus and IBM to reintroduce COBOL training programs for both novice and experienced developers.
Impact of Artificial Intelligence
The advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is also making waves in COBOL's domain, particularly in translating legacy code. AI's automation capabilities enable the rapid translation of extensive codebases and the swift generation of test cases. This technology could potentially facilitate the replacement of complex legacy COBOL code with more modern programming languages like Java, although a complete transition remains a long-term objective given the vast amount of existing COBOL code.
Chapter 2: Future Outlook for COBOL
It is astonishing that, even after six decades, COBOL remains a relevant and captivating topic in the technology sector. Given the recent trends surrounding COBOL, we can only speculate about the future directions it may take. Regardless of what lies ahead, it is clear that COBOL will continue to play a significant role in the evolving technological landscape.
The first video titled "The real COBOL programmer shortage is 5-10 years out" discusses the future implications of the COBOL programming landscape and the anticipated shortage of skilled programmers.
The second video, "Most IMPORTANT Programming Language to Learn in 2024 for Job Security is COBOL!" emphasizes the importance of learning COBOL for career stability in the current job market.
What trends have you observed recently in the programming world? Have any of these trends impacted you personally?