Production Ramp-Up Expectations

For several weeks, sightings of Model Y vehicles parked outside the factory have been reported, presumed to be Long Range and Performance versions based on visible features in drone footage.

During the January investors' call, Elon stated that production would gradually increase to 5,000 cars by the end of 2022, with an ambition to double this to 10,000 units weekly by the following year. According to a tweet from Sawyer Merritt on March 4, citing @TroyTeslike, regular production might start at around 500 vehicles per week, with a target of reaching 1,000 units by late April 2022. A second shift is planned for June, alongside a three-week shutdown to transition production lines from 2170 to 4680 batteries later in the year. With two gigapresses capable of producing castings for 2,500 units per week already installed, the pathway to achieving Elon’s 5,000 units per week goal seems plausible. However, two additional gigapresses are expected to be needed to sustain this production level.

Capacity Expansion Potential

The exact vehicle models to be produced at the Berlin facility, aside from the Model Y, remain unclear. While the Model 3 has historically been Tesla's bestseller, the Model Y is projected to surpass it this year. Speculations also linger about whether a future smaller, more affordable model will be manufactured at this site, but little is known beyond previous mentions during Battery Day in September 2020.

Nonetheless, the 500,000 units per year estimate seems insufficient when compared to the current and projected production rates from Tesla's Shanghai factory. As of early 2022, the Shanghai factory was running at an annualized rate of around 700,000 units, with about 500,000 designated for the Model Y.

As discussed in the Tesla Economist's YouTube video, it is reasonable to theorize that Tesla could achieve similar output levels in Berlin. The Shanghai Model Y factory occupies approximately 0.13 km², while the Berlin facility covers about 0.2 km², indicating a size increase of over 50%. Additionally, the Berlin factory requires 300 fewer robots and processes due to its usage of front die casting molds. This raises the question: shouldn’t we anticipate a potential production capacity double that of Shanghai? If Shanghai's Model Y factory can potentially reach a million units, could Berlin's capacity also approach two million vehicles annually, given that new manufacturing techniques only require a 30% improvement to achieve this?

The Tesla Economist video also mentions a speculated capacity of Berlin’s battery plant at up to 250 GWh per year, sufficient for 3.5 million vehicles using 4680 cell packs, which are specifically designed for automotive use, not energy storage.