Apple's Strategic Blueprint for Mac Market Leadership
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Introduction to Apple's Vision
Apple's introduction of its silicon chips marks a pivotal moment in its long-term strategy for Mac dominance.
In the article titled "PCs Have Always Been More Capable Than Macs. Until Now," I argued that Apple's silicon has finally given Macs a notable hardware edge over traditional Windows-Intel (Wintel) PCs. This shift is anticipated to boost Mac’s market share, a feat that seemed unlikely given Wintel's historical stronghold. However, signs of resurgence are already evident:
In late 2020, Apple reported sales of 6.9 million Macs—over one million more than any previous quarter. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimates that shipments of MacBook Air and MacBook Pro could double within three years to approximately 30 million units annually, driven by Apple silicon and anticipated redesigns.
Notably, I believe the reality will exceed these projections. Over the next two years, I anticipate that Apple will more than triple Mac sales, positioning itself as the leading PC vendor for the first time in its 45-year history.
The Catalyst of Innovation
Apple's initial breakthrough came with the Apple II, but it was Dan Bricklin’s spreadsheet software, VisiCalc, that truly drove sales. While other financial software existed, VisiCalc pioneered the modern spreadsheet interface, earning its status as a “killer app”—a program so crucial that people would purchase a computer solely to use it.
As Bricklin recounts, Steve Jobs acknowledged VisiCalc's role in propelling the Apple II's success. In 1978, prior to VisiCalc's launch, Apple sold 7,600 Apple II computers. Following its introduction, sales soared: 35,000 in 1979, 78,000 in 1980, and 210,000 in 1981. This remarkable growth led Jobs to believe Apple had nothing to fear from IBM's entry into the PC market in 1981.
However, this confidence was misplaced. Jobs focused on the IBM PC's engineering and design while overlooking the advanced 16-bit Intel CPU that granted it capabilities far exceeding those of the Apple II's 8-bit processor. When Mitch Kapor created Lotus 1-2-3 for IBM, it quickly eclipsed VisiCalc, which began to decline by 1984.
This narrative demonstrates how technological advancements can dramatically alter market dynamics. With the transition to Apple silicon, the Mac stands on the brink of unleashing a new “killer app” that could drive sales to unprecedented heights.
Shifting Dynamics in the PC Market
Significant shifts in the PC market are infrequent, but they do happen. Apple silicon represents such a shift:
For high-end desktops, Apple plans to release a chip design featuring up to 32 high-performance cores by late 2021, alongside graphics upgrades with 64 and 128 dedicated cores. These chips would significantly outperform current graphics modules used in Intel-powered hardware.
However, revitalizing the Mac began well before the release of Apple silicon Macs in November. The Marzipan project, unveiled in 2017, aimed to enable developers to create a single app compatible with iPhones, iPads, and Macs. During the 2018 WWDC keynote, Craig Federighi highlighted the opportunity for the Mac to leverage the extensive iOS app ecosystem.
Marzipan was officially branded as Catalyst during WWDC 2019, and it was complemented by SwiftUI—a new UI framework that streamlines development across Apple platforms. SwiftUI enables developers to create sophisticated user interfaces using straightforward, declarative code.
As Catalyst and SwiftUI evolve, they pave the way for a wave of significant new apps to enter the Mac App Store.
Looking Ahead: Windows on Apple Silicon
Despite Intel's claims of superiority, it is the software ecosystem that retains users. Microsoft has already developed an ARM version of Windows, and Apple appears open to integrating Windows on Apple silicon Macs. As Mac market share grows, a mutually beneficial arrangement between Apple and Microsoft seems likely, potentially delivering “a better Windows than Windows” to Apple’s new machines.
Adapting to Change
Critics argue that the existing satisfaction with Wintel PCs will maintain the status quo. However, history shows that innovation can disrupt established markets.
John D. Rockefeller revolutionized lighting with affordable kerosene, only to be supplanted by Thomas Edison’s electric light bulbs. Transitioning from PCs to Macs is far simpler than retrofitting buildings for electricity.
I was once deeply tied to Intel-based PCs, having started my software engineering career at Bell Labs in 1985. Yet, I transitioned to the Mac with the iPhone SDK release in 2008—and I've never looked back. If I can make the switch, so can anyone.
Conclusion: The Future of Apple in the PC Landscape
The notion of Apple overtaking the PC market may seem far-fetched, but it is not outside the realm of possibility. Should Intel continue to falter, and Apple successfully executes its vision for Mac leadership, the landscape could shift dramatically, potentially rendering Intel-based PCs obsolete.
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